MARKET · SOUTH AFRICA
South Africa’s cannabis market: from decriminalisation to what comes next
Eight years after a landmark court ruling, cannabis is everywhere in South Africa, but a legal commercial market is still being built. Here’s how it got here, where it stands and what the next three years could bring.
October 2026 · 4 min read
2018: a landmark ruling
In September 2018, South Africa’s Constitutional Court ruled in the Prince case that adults have the right to use, possess and grow cannabis in private for personal consumption. The ruling decriminalised private use, but it did not create a right to buy, sell or commercially grow cannabis. That distinction has shaped the market ever since.
2024: a law for private use
Parliament followed with the Cannabis for Private Purposes Act, signed into law in May 2024. It sets rules for personal cultivation, possession and use, and provides a route to clear some past cannabis convictions. The Act only takes effect on a date the President proclaims, and that hasn’t happened yet.
In February 2026, the government published draft regulations proposing limits such as up to 750 grams and five plants per person. Public comment closed in March, and the rules are not yet final.
Where the market stands now
Visible, but in a gray zone. Cannabis shops and private clubs have spread through cities and shopping centres, but commercial trade remains largely prohibited. Courts have pushed back on some models. The Western Cape High Court held that a grow club providing cultivation for payment couldn’t rely on the Prince ruling.
A large informal economy. Euromonitor estimated the illicit market at around R36 billion in 2025, far larger than the legal channels.
Narrow legal channels. Medical cannabis runs through the South African Health Products Regulatory Authority (SAHPRA), and the combined CBD and medical market was about R470 million in 2024. Hemp is further along, with more than 1,100 cultivation permits issued by September 2024. Export routes exist too, but none of these add up to a domestic adult-use market.
What to watch over the next three years
1. The private-use law takes effect. Finalising the regulations and proclaiming the 2024 Act is the most likely next step, giving consumers and growers clear personal-use rules.
2. A commercial framework. The government has said commercial cultivation and trade will be handled through separate policy. An overarching Cannabis Bill is scheduled to reach Parliament by mid-2027. If it passes on time, a licensed commercial market could start taking shape around 2028 to 2029, though reform timelines have slipped before.
3. The size of the opportunity. Euromonitor projects a fully commercial market of about R11 billion by 2028 if the law changes. Even then, the illicit market is expected to keep a large share, so licensing, pricing and enforcement will matter as much as the law itself.
4. Hemp, medical and export growth. These channels are likely to keep expanding regardless, and they’re where most regulated investment will continue to flow until adult-use rules arrive.
The likely picture by 2029
The most likely South Africa of 2029 has clear private-use rules in force, a commercial framework passed or close to it, and the first licensed businesses moving into a market that’s already large and well established informally. The pace depends on government. The demand is already there.